Sixth Sense: A Web you can wear


In the April 15th edition of the Christian Science Monitor, I had the priviledge of providing analysis and commentary of MIT’s “Sixth Sense” device.  For the uninitiated, Sixth Sense is a conglomeration of wearable mobile tools (webcam, 3G modem, micro-projector and palmtop computer) that together collect data about the world around the wearer, and superimpose data from the cloud on top of physicality.

The full article is here: http://features.csmonitor.com/innovation/2009/04/15/sixth-sense-a-web-you-can-wear/

You can see a video of the device here:



Some choice quotes:

But observers are already envisioning future improvements to Sixth Sense that could result in some startling possibilities.

“Its current representation is a pretty fun parlor trick that has the roots of being a transformative capability down the road,” says Jonas Lamis, founder of the advanced technology research and consulting firm SciVestor in Austin, Texas.

Among Mr. Lamis’s predictions: Sixth Sense’s current projector will eventually give way to contact lenses that overlay data directly onto a person’s field of vision.

In places where we now find fixed advertisements, like posters or billboards, we will see ads calibrated to our exact location and interests, he says. We will effortlessly access virtual conversations, like those on Twitter, about the people, places, and events we come across in person.

And Sixth Sense-type computers with advanced facial recognition capabilities, Lamis says, might show information about the people we pass on the street. We would know if he donated to a political candidate, if she writes an environmentally themed blog, or if he appears in a database of registered child predators – all in real time.

“People in different areas are thinking about this as viable for consumers down the road,” Lamis says. “It [will have] really profound implications for how [we] ultimately see the world.”



The Legend of Paal Payasam (Part 1)


On your next trip to India – you might just want to take a detour to Ambalappuzha.  Ambalappuzha is a small town in the state of Kerala, in southern India. The town is famous for its Sri Krishna temple and its rice pudding.

For the temple of Ambalappuzha is where the legend of Paal Payasam originates.

According to legend, Lord Krishna once appeared in the form of a sage in the court of the king who ruled the region and challenged him for a game of chess. The king being a chess enthusiast himself gladly accepted the invitation. The prize had to be decided before the game and the king asked the sage to choose his prize in case he wins. The sage told the king that he was a man of few material needs, and thus all he wished was a few grains of rice. The amount of rice itself shall be determined using the chessboard in the following manner. One grain of rice shall be placed in the first square, two grains in the second square, four in the third square, eight in the fourth square and so on. Every square will have double the number of grains of its predecessor.


Upon hearing the demand, the king was unhappy since the sage requested only a few grains of rice instead of other riches from the kingdom, which the king would’ve been happy to donate.


18 Billion Billion

Never-the-less, the game commenced, and needless to say the king lost the game. The King called forth to a porter from the royal granary to bring forth a bag of rice to met out the  prize. As he started adding grains of rice to the chessboard, the king soon realized the true nature of the sage’s demands. By the 20th square, the number had reached one-million grains of rice and by the 40th square, it became one-trillion. The royal grainery soon ran out of bags of rice. The king realized that even if he provides all the rice in his kingdom and his adjacent kingdoms, he would never be able to fulfill the promised reward. For the amount of rice required to fill a 64-squared chessboard is 18 billion billion grains of rice - 460 billion tons.


Upon seeing the dilemma, the sage appeared to the king in his true-form, that of lord Krishna. He told the King that he doesn’t have to pay the debt immediately but can pay him over time – and that The king shall serve paal-payasam in the temple freely to the pilgrims every day until the debt is paid off.  And today, you will still find rice pudding in the temples of southern Indian state of Kerala.



Architecting The Future - A thought for IT strategists


I was sitting a home watching TV the other evening when a commercial came on the screen that blew me way.  It was made to look like archival footage of an old gas station being built, circa early 20th century. Snow-capped mountains loom in the distance indicating the creation of an American outpost where the prairie meets the Rockies.  As the time-lapse images progressed over the next minute, I saw the station’s comings and goings.  Kids growing up and heading off by Greyhound.  Cars, pulling in and out of the station getting fancier and larger. A driving piano score creates a tension as the images flashing on the screen go from black and white to Technicolor. The station itself is demolished and rebuilt at least 4 times in those 60 seconds, each bringing us closer to a picture of the 21st century oil economy.


And then the most unexpected thing happens.  The station withers into oblivion, the fields reclaim the asphalt and only the mountains remain.   The punch line:  The new Chevy Volt appears.


In 2010, General Motors plans to launch the Chevy Volt, a “plug-in” electric / gas hybrid that will travel 40 miles without any gas at all.  If battery technology grows on an exponential path (like Moore’s Law is driving the semiconductor industry), by the middle of the next decade, we will see vehicles that can travel hundreds of miles on an overnight charge from your garage.  By the end of the decade ahead, we are legitimately looking at the end of the gas station, as we know it.


So what does this have to do with strategic IT planning?


For the last thirty years, IT strategists and enterprise architects have held the primary roles in the enterprise for understanding technology change.  Because of the nature of the digitization of “Information” and the progress of “Technology” it was frequently enough to be an expert on processes within the four walls of the data center.  But as advancing technologies spill beyond the traditional bounds of the IT department, a new set of skills and a more savvy approach to the politics of the enterprise are necessary for those who wish to continue to wear the strategy badge.  Based on the results of the Architecture & Governance Magazine 2008 readers survey (of which I am the editor), IT departments appear to acknowledge the need to be up to the task.


The most startling result from our reader survey was the increase in C-level involvement in supporting enterprise scale transformation initiatives.  In fact, 56% of those surveyed indicated their CEO, CFO, CIO or VP was responsible for driving large-scale change.  This is up over 500% from our 2007 survey.  Across the board in the survey, as well in side bar conversations, executives are taking a much stronger interest in the sponsorship, capabilities and performance of architects and IT strategists.


Changes like the Chevy Volt occur at the intersection of corporate strategy and technology advancement and this commercial is a harbinger of coming waves of technology progress that are going to turn business models, enterprises, perhaps even whole segments of the economy on their heads.   The energy sector is already headed over the precipice.  Just behind it is everything from medical to mining to manufacturing.


As a strategist of your enterprise, the time is here to look beyond the cubicle wall, past the blinking lights of the datacenter, and raise your eyes to the snow capped mountains beyond.  There’s a change coming.


You can view the Chevy Volt commercial here.



Blown To Bits: Interview with the Authors


As part of my work with Architecture & Governance Magazine, I had the opportunity to review a new book: Blown to Bits.  The following conversation will appear in the October issue of A&G.


A&G sat down with the Ken Ledeen and Harry Lewis, the authors (along with IEEE Fellow Hal Abelson) to discuss their new book, Blown To Bits: Your Life, Liberty, and Happiness after the Digital Explosion.  (www.bitsbook.com)
The authors paint a profound picture of the risks and rewards of our techno-enhanced future.  In particular, we wanted to get their insight to the implications of every accelerating technological power on the legacy processes of the enterprise.


A&G:  Much debate has occurred around the future of IT in a distributed, open-sourced, service oriented world.  How do large IT organizations have to change in the decade ahead in order to adapt to the new structures of society, information and business.


BtB: We talk about how institutions move so much more slowly than technology.  This is clearly seen in the world of legislation, and how the legal system has a hard time keeping pace with technology change.  Global 2000 organizations, while smaller than governments, will likely continue to move the governance mechanisms forward quite slowly in the decade ahead.


Look inside traditional IT organizations.  How many COBOL and mainframe programmers do they still have?  Lots more than you might imagine.  Changes are slow to come about because the IT organization is typically focused on guarding corporate assets.


Organizations that have a lot to preserve become very conservative.  On the other hand, organizations without a legacy to manage can become extraordinarily innovative and have the opportunity to surpass the legacy institution.


On the other hand, one of the real opportunities for large IT organizations in the decade ahead is to create enormous value by mining the information that they collected as collateral aspects of their normal business. Leading organizations are finding ways to get at these vast storehouses in information and translate that information to insight and value.  This is a place where strategic IT and enterprise architecture can play a major role.


A&G: What do you see as the future of enterprise in the United States?


BtB: There is a tremendous amount of innovation taking place in entrepreneurial companies, and that is also spreading to other forums.  And it takes large organizations with their span of resources and influence to apply these innovations.   The risk among large corporations is that they miss out on embracing these new organizational paradigms.


As an example, we discuss about how Search is a new organizational paradigm in the book.  Enterprises were built with physical buildings that had rooms filled with file cabinets of information.  That metaphor carried forward into the digital age with file folders and windows and directory structures.  Search turns that paradigm on its head.  Search says you don’t categorize, you find.  While this concept came from small companies, it is now finding a foothold across the largest enterprises, which are the repositories of so much undiscovered value.


Even Google continues to morph itself.  It is no longer “just” a search company.  It is becoming a storage and retrieval company – understanding the value locked in the unstructured data of the world – for companies that don’t consider information as their main product.


A decade ago, the question was about outsourcing my hardware.  Do I want to outsource it.  Should I go to India to make that happen?  More recently, the question turned to outsourcing the application stack.  A critical question of the near future is: Do I outsource my data?  Not just the storage of it, but the management, care, feeding, and curation of it.


Are the employees at Google better in tune with the Enterprise Architecture approach of managing the inconnectivity of that data, the relationships that exist through it, and the associated value that can be captured from understanding those non obvious relationships – rather than your typical IT organization?
If I am an insurance company, I know the relationship between policy and policyholder, but I no doubt have tremendous insight buried in the related grid of information assets that I don’t have a clue about uncovering.  This offers both a tremendous challenge and opportunity for companies in the decade ahead.


A&G:  The workforce for corporate IT is aging, and it is not readily apparent that today’s “digital natives” are overly anxious to step into the shoes of their data center and application management forefathers.  What advice doyou have for corporate IT teams looking to recruit the best and the brightest?


BtB Rekindling the excitement about IT careers of any kind is a major task for the American education system.  Every computer science department is thinking about this.  The Bureau of Labor statistics point to a 50% growth in the need for IT professionals in the coming decade.  But the fact of the matter is that there is a labor shortage in every niche.


Much has been made about the cost benefits of outsourcing IT jobs - $200,000 per head in the US vs. $60,000 per head in India.  The reality is, that in the not-too-distant future, when a company has to choose from these too options, they will find that they will need to hire both –just to keep up with headcount demands.


Companies need to expand their vision of what an IT job entails and help young candidates understand that their skills related to the newest technologies can really make an impact within their organization.


A&G:  Stewardship of the bits becomes more and more an issue as value shifts from physical to digital ownership.  This shift is accelerating at many of the companies who read our magazine.  These companies used to make their money selling physical goods and running bricks and mortar establishments.  Now their primary value comes from the data they own and the insight it generates.  How should these companies protect their digital assets at the same time leverage them to generate increasing value?


These companies face two orthogonal issues:  How do I find value in the information I have collected, and how do I protect the information that I have?


Traditional digital protection is about protecting the medium – with access codes and firewalls and encryption.  But the growing issue now is about also protecting the “message”.  Who speaks for your brand?  How should you respond and nurture public commentary.  What insight should you give away, and what should you charge for?  How do you (and your customers) know that the message they are seeing is really legitimate?


A&G:  To further your point, look at the explosion of Twitter.  While there are hundreds of thousands of people “tweeting” away every day about life, products, issues etc., very few companies have embraced the medium.  Just recently, an imposter named “Janet” became the voice of ExxonMobile in the twitterverse just by registering and tweeting under the name @ExxonMobileCorp.  She answered questions on behalf of the company for several days before she was exposed.  And even after exposure, she continued to tweet under Exxon’s brand.


BtB: Right, the question becomes one of information security – not just security of the medium.  It is one of the key challenges facing IT today.


About the authors:

Ken Ledeen is Chairman and CEO of Nevo Technologies and has served on the boards of numerous technology companies.  Harry Lewis, former Dean of Harvard College, is Gordon McKay Professor of Computer Science at Harvard.  Together with Hal Abelson the teach Quantative Reasoning 48, an innovative Harvard course on information for non-technical, non-mathematically oriented students.



Nanotechnology nearing the point when it’s time to go public



THE NEW YORK TIMES
Monday, December 24, 2007

Nanotechnology companies, nurtured on billions of dollars in government grants and venture investments through most of this decade, are getting ready to go public.

Being near to taking such a step is another stage in the evolution of nanotechnology, the science of materials measured at billionths of a meter, or 1/500th of a human hair.

Experts note that nanotechnology-enabled products are already used in industry.

“There are 200 commercial products in cosmetics, apparel and sporting goods in which nanotechnology plays a role,” said Lynn Foster, emerging technologies director for the law firm Greenberg Traurig and author of the 2006 book “Nanotechnology: Science, Innovation and Opportunity.”

Foster cites clothing with a coating of nanoparticles — from Nano-Tex Corp. of Oakland, Calif. — that repels stains.

And increasing numbers of nanotech products are in the offing.

Mihail Roco, senior adviser for nanotechnology at the National Science Foundation and an architect of the government’s research effort, predicted in an interview on the Web site of the National Nanotechnology Initiative that by 2015, nanotechnology will play a crucial role in $1 trillion worth of products, “which would require 2 million workers.”

Companies in nanotechnology speak of adapting their research to medical innovations, in which nanoparticles would deliver medicine directly to individual cells, and to solar energy, in which nano-enabled photovoltaic coatings would capture and store the sun’s energy at a lower cost than today’s solar panels.

The NanoGram Corp. in Milpitas, Calif., is aiming some of its research efforts toward such solar ambitions.

“We have 58 of our 69 employees working in R&D in the clean technology area, including solar power,” said Kieran Drain, chief executive of NanoGram, which earns money by licensing innovations to manufacturers of optical and electronic products.

NanoGram has a venture with Nagase & Co. of Japan, a manufacturer of light-emitting diode, or LED, screens for digital devices.

“Our nanomaterials enable the screens to emit more light,” Drain said.

In its 11-year history, NanoGram has spun off or sold operations to other companies in communications and medical electronics.

In the past two years, the company has raised almost $27 million in venture capital backing and looks to go public in 2009, “when we’ll have become larger in annual revenues,” Drain said.

Another company hoping to go public is Unidym Inc., which works with clusters of carbon nanoparticles that possess extraordinary properties in tensile strength and conduction of electrical current.

Sean Olson, vice president for operations and strategy, said Unidym is working with companies that produce the touch screens for cell phone devices, automatic teller machines and airport check-in terminals.

“Our carbon nanotube technology makes the light-emitting chipsets less brittle and able to emit more light,” Olson said. “Our screens can take a pounding.”

Unidym, based in Menlo Park, Calif., is a subsidiary of the Arrowhead Research Corp., a public investment company that was founded in 2003 to back small companies engaged in nanotechnology research.

Arrowhead, based in Pasadena, Calif., is advised by half a dozen professors at the California Institute of Technology.

In March, Arrowhead helped Unidym merge with Carbon Nanotechnologies, a Houston-based firm that was founded by the late nanotechnology pioneer Richard Smalley of Rice University, who won the Nobel Prize for his work.

“Unidym and Carbon Nanotechnologies make a powerful combination for the future of the semiconductor industry,” said John Miller, vice president of business development at Arrowhead.

Miller explained that nanoparticles, working at atomic scales, can produce semiconductors at more infinitesimal levels than current electronic technology and at lower cost than today’s manufacturing plants, which typically cost $5 billion to build.

Arrowhead Research is backed by Fidelity Investments, a mutual fund company; York Capital Management, a hedge fund company; and other public shareholders.

“As a public company, we can take a somewhat longer-term perspective on earning a return on investment,” Miller said.

He gave that as a reason Arrowhead was able to combine Unidym with Carbon Technologies.

Venture fund investors in Carbon Technologies, which was founded in 2000, “needed to get their money out,” Miller said.

Arrowhead can now reap its own return when it assists Unidym in going public, possibly next year if general market conditions are favorable.

The Arrowhead example points up two factors in the recent evolution of nanotechnology.

One is the role of universities.

In disbursing $8 billion in research grants since 2001, the National Nanotechnology Initiative has worked through 60 or so universities all over the United States.

And it is still working through the universities that have been designated as Centers and Networks of Excellence, including the Center for Nanobiotechnology at Cornell University; the Center for Scalable and Integrated Nano-Manufacturing at the University of California, Los Angeles; the Institute for Nanoelectronics and Computing at Purdue University and others.

The other factor is the fickleness of financial market opinion.

At the beginning of this decade, nanotechnology was greeted with predictions of instant wonders and investment success.

But when technological developments seemed to take longer than anticipated, investor enthusiasm cooled and nanotechnology was looked on as an overhyped promise.

Now attitudes are becoming positive again, Foster, the nanotechnology author, said, and “we’ll see many firms coming to the public markets.”



Is Warren Buffet Betting on The Singularity?


Peter Thiel, PayPal co-founder, SIAI benefactor and Principal of Clarium Capital, took the stage at the Singularity Summit Sunday and gave a great talk about considering when and how to lay down bets on The Singularity. His basic premise was that along the bell curve of plausible outcomes, the most likely scenarios eventually migrate toward the tails: very wonderful or very catastrophic. And of these two possible outcomes, either is acceptable to investors.

On the “wonderful” hand, the run-up to AGI creates the biggest investment boom in the history of humanity, and the positive results yield a world of never-ending promise. On the “catastrophic” hand, advanced AGI gone awry causes humanity to disappear in a cloud of [insert your favorite existential risk scenario here] dust. In that scenario, the investor has bigger problems than the lack of return anyway.

Thiel believes that we may already be experiencing economic upheaval that is paving the way for the long boom. He asks, “What if the peak of insanity in March 2000 was really a peak of clarity? But those technologies were not the decisive sets of technologies?” What if the gyrations in the markets since then represent the global investment community lining up behind possible scenarios that they hope will produce “wonderful results”?

To illustrate his point, he discussed the investment strategies of Warren Buffet. He asked the intriguing question: Is Warren Buffet betting on The Singularity? According to Thiel, Buffet’s portfolio was traditionally focused on value stocks. But this has shifted in the last decade toward insurance and catastrophic reinsurance products. Thiel believes this is a classic adoption of the wonderful vs. catastrophic philosophy of Singularity investors. For Buffet, Thiel sees 4 possible outcomes for his investments:

1. Nothing bad happens: Buffet happily collects the premiums from his policy holders and maybe even lives to 1000.

2. A Mild disaster like 9/11 occurs: This helps the insurance industry in that it allows them to raise rates and drives more policy purchases.

3. A big catastrophe happens [Thiel showed a rendering of nukes exploding over Manhattan]: In this scenario, the rules get changed. The Government steps in and makes things whole for the insurance industry.

4. [Again, insert your favorite Existential Risk scenario] – No one is around to collect.

I believe Thiel is onto something here. I have always been a fan of “riskless profit”. That’s why I love investing in investment banks and casino companies and insurance firms. They are as riskless as they come. As long as the people show up, there is profit to be had.

Now Thiel brings a new dimension to this perspective. There is profit to be had in Singularity enabling technologies or there isn’t. Either way, it’s a safe bet.



Singularity, Inc.


There is a big change at this year’s Singularity Summit as opposed to the inaugural event last year at Stanford. Besides charging $50 to get in, the event has stretched to two full days, from one jam-packed day last year. The addition of that second day has brought about a profound shift in the agenda – the inclusion of speakers from many corporations pursing Singularity enabling technologies.

At last year’s event, the theorist presentations outnumbered the corporations’ 10-4. And the 4 were Ray Kurzweil, K. Eric Drexler (father of nanotech), Steve Jurvetson (VC), and Peter Thiel (SIAI underwriter).

This time around, the ratio has shifted to 50% of the speakers. Representing or talking about their companies on stage this year are:

· Sam Adams (IBM Distinguished Engineer)

· Rodney Brooks (iRobot)

· Neil Jacobstein (CEO, Teknowledge)

· Steve Jurvetson (Partner at DFJ)

· Peter Norvig (Director of Research, Google)

· Stephen Omohundro (Founder, Self-Aware Systems)

· Barney Pell (CEO, Powerset)

· Peter Thiel (Clarium Capital)

· Peter Voss (CEO, Adaptive AI)

There was even a “special” post-lunch presentation by Artificial Development, Inc. one of the show’s sponsors. The event also has to be more transparent regarding why these corporations have speaking slots. Powerset, for example, is funded by Peter Thiel.

I think this is an interesting shift, but I am not sure that the majority of the audience is along for the ride. I think this event is at a cross-roads this year. It will either evolve into a business-centric confab with big-thinker keynotes (which I think will happen) or it will morph into a think-fest retreat – a mini TED. Either way, I’m looking forward to seeing the evolution.



Steve Jurvetson speaking at the Singularity Summit


I’m really getting excited about the Singularity Summit, coming up on Sept 8 and 9 in San Francisco. I’ll be blogging the event.

Although we are still a few years away from mainstream understanding of the Singularity principles, it is exciting to see the wave of digerati associating themselves with the concepts.

When a high-power VC like Steve Jurvetson commits to a speaking slot, you can tell that tsunami of interest will be building behind him. Here is a link to a podcast previewing his thoughts on ZD Net:

Steve Jurvetson: AI, nanotech and the future of the human species



SciVee: Teach a man to fish…


SciVee is a startup website that is focused on publishing scientist created videos that correlate to published research.

By giving scientists a Web 2.0 framework to demonstrate and discuss their research they can covey key concepts related in a new and powerful ways that the written research alone can not.

While embryonic, this site is of note in that it is sponsored by high powered scientific outposts including PLoS, NSF and SDSC. Of course JoVE - The Journal of Visual Experiments - is the grand-daddy in this space having been in operation since late 2006 :-)
And I’d bet would could dig up some science on YouTube circa 2005 if we really tried…

SciVee: Pioneering New Modes of Scientific Dissemination



Google and large scientific datasets