The Lamisphere

On November 15th and 16th, a remarkable un-conference will take place.  Convergence 08 is being hosted at The Computer History Museum in Mountain View, California.  The event is sponsored by a group  of long-term-philanthropy non-profits: The Foresight Institute, Humanity +, Imminst.org, The Singularity Institute, The Long Now Foundation, The Methuselah Foundation, and CyBeRev.

Paul Saffo keynotes, and three panels have been programmed.  The rest of the scheduled two days is left to the attendees to collaborate on topics of relevance to the community.  The three panels, posed as “debates”, are focused on synthetic biology, artificial intelligence, and longevity intervention.

I have the distinct pleasure of moderating the artificial intelligence debate which brings together four leading thinkers in this area:

• Ben Goertzel, Novamente, Singularity Institute
• Peter Norvig, Director of Research at Google
• Steve Omohundro, Self-Aware Systems
• Barney Pell, Founder of Powerset, Strategist at Microsoft

For one hour, we will a conduct a very different AI debate: not whether to create AI, or which technical path will work fastest, but “How can we use AI technology to build the world we want to live in?”

Some of the things I want to know:

• Technology policy and politics:  What advice do you have to President-elect Obama on the future of technology enhanced humanity?
• Haves vs. have-nots:  Is there a growing gap between haves and have-nots?  If so, should we look towards AI to address it?
• Potential outcomes:  Viewing the distribution of future outcomes (imagine a normal distribution), it seems that accelerating technology capability will push probabilities towards the tails:  Exceedingly wonderful or terrible.  How can we use AI technology to push towards a favorable outcome for humanity?
• Governance mechanisms:  I heard a commentator say that this just past election will likely be the most important election of our lifetime.  What about the election of 2048 that pits enhanced human vs. sentient machine?  What kinds of governance systems should we put in place now to inform the world we want in 2048?

What kinds of questions would you like answered by the esteemed panel?  I’d welcome your input.

3 Comments | In: Artificial Intelligence, Convergence08 | | #

Michael Sean Wright of Nice Fish Films recorded a podcast with me today. Billed as “a discussion with really big thinkers”, we talked about The Singularity Summit and some of my favorite emerging technologies. You can hear the podcast below.

No Comments | In: Accelerating Technologies, Artificial Intelligence, Brain Machine Interface, Futurism, Intelligent Agents, Robotics, SciVestor, Semantic Web, Singularity Summit, Siri, Twine, Twitter | | #

My friends Tyler Emerson and James Clement have spent a great deal of time recently promoting a fascinating new non-profit research institute called The Innerspace Foundation. Pete Estep, chairman and chief scientist of the organization spoke at The Singularity Summit, and announced that the organization had garnered over $1 Million in funding for research in 2009. You can follow their progress at the Innerspace Foundation website.

To give get a novice understanding of the science and progress behind BMI, check out the fantastic piece from 60 Minutes that aired on Sunday, November 2nd.

No Comments | In: Brain Machine Interface, Innerspace Foundation, Video | | #

The Emerging Technology workshop at The Singularity Summit was a blast to host. We had a standing room only crowd of 150+, and I had the opportunity to present to and meet tons of interesting people. Thanks to everyone who presented and attended for an awesome day for SciVestor!

I presented the following preso at the morning keynote. Props to ethos 3 for their excellent graphical enhancements. Enjoy!

No Comments | In: Uncategorized | | #

I’m sitting back stage today at The Singularity Summit, enjoying the presentations and doing my best to stay out of the way. My chief responsibility (self assigned) is to tweet and twine the event has it happens. I’ve not used these two tools in conjunction before, but I am finding that they have an amazing synergy for recording both the fleeting zeitgeist (al a Twitter) and the enduring data (Twine).

Both are social tools. Twitter enables a group to socially instant-message and share their thoughts and perceptions of the moment. In the case of an assembled group of twitterers (tweeps? tweeters?) attending a conference, the medium becomes a method for creating a “back-channel” of conversation that floats through the aether parallel to the one-way message of the speaker.

Last spring at South by Southwest, the Twitter back-chanel flexed it’s muscle during the keynote conversation between Mark Zuckerberg and Sarah Lacy. (See Zuckerberg Keynote Descends Into Chaos as Audience Takes Over)

Tweets at The Singularity Summit have been less inflamatory (for the most part).  We’ve adopted a hashtag #SS08 which allows people to easily find Summit comments.  You can see the most recent tweets here.  We used the same hashtag yesterday at the Emerging Tech workshop, and several of the panel moderators monitored the twitter feed during their panel to incorporate feedback.

The second tool that we are using at the Summit is Twine.  (Twine is a financial sponsor of the event).  Twine is a bookmarking tool + discussion forum augmented with semantic intelligence.  As presenters discuss topics on stage, I can find a representation online and “Add To Twine”.  (Twine requires a free subscription, you can see the Summit twine here.) Once I submit content to Twine, the service pulls keywords, summary data, and relevant context from the posting and creates a relationship model that links postings to other relevant content. Twine, like Twitter, is a collaborative tool.  Anyone who subscribes to my Singularity Summit twine can add their own content which will semantically get mixed into all other contributions.

What I am finding most fascinating today (aside from the speakers) is the interplay between these two tools.  A speaker’s comments will trigger a posting to Twine which in turn causes someone else to post an item to Twitter.  Conversely, Some feedback on Twitter will trigger a post on Twine.  It’s possible that we can see a recursive feedback loop between these tools from both the speakers and the audience that will last far beyond the speaker’s 15 minutes of fame on the stage.  It would be a great benefit to Twine to integrate a Twitter feed so that semantic relationships within Twine could reference tweets and vice versa.  I’m optimistic that these two tools will work together to create a very powerful offering for managing the short term and longer term wisdom of the crowd.

No Comments | In: Singularity Summit, Twine, Twitter, Uncategorized | | #

Still considering attending the Singularity Summit this weekend?  We’ve got fewer than 50 seats remaining for the main event on Saturday, and the Friday emerging technology workshop is over subscribed.  Here is a teaser of what the day will be about. Hope you can join us!

No Comments | In: Accelerating Technologies, Artificial Intelligence, Disruption, Futurism, Nanotechnology, Robotics, Singularity Summit, Uncertainty | | #

January 1st, 2008 was the first day for SciVestor, my research and consulting firm focused on understanding emerging technologies that might change the world. We’ve accomplished a lot in the last 9 months, but I am most excited about our first upcoming event.

On Friday, October 24th, SciVestor and The Singularity Institute present the Emerging Technologies Workshop. This event is sold out, and is being held at The Tech Museum of Innovation in San Jose, CA. The day’s agenda follows:

Schedule

8:30am Doors open
9:00am Registration – coffee and breakfast bar available
9:30am Opening Keynote – Jonas Lamis, SciVestor
10:00am Semantic Web panel + Q&A
11:00am Break
11:15am Introducing CLIMOS
11:40am Introducing m2mi
12:00pm Lunch (offsite)
1:15pm Nanotechnology Panel + Q&A
2:15pm Break
2:30pm Introducing Piryx
2:50pm Robotics panel + Q&A
3:50pm Closing Keynote – Jamais Cascio, IFTF

Event concludes at 4:30pm.

Speakers

Keynotes

Jonas Lamis Exec Director SciVestor
Jamias Cascio Analyst Institute for the Future

Semantic Web Panel

Josh Dilworth Manager Porter Novelli
Chris Morrison Editor Venturebeat
Thomas Dietterich Professor University of Oregon
Dag Kittlaus CEO stealth-company.com

Nanotechnology Panel

Andrew Braswell Director of Research iNano Capital
Christine Peterson President Foresight Institute Nano panelist
Jamais Cascio Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Douglas Jamison President Harris & Harris Group
Christopher Anazalone President & CEO Arrowhead Research Corp

Robotics Panel

Jonas Lamis Exec Director SciVestor
Dan Kara CEO Robotics Trends
Bruce Hall President Velodyne LIDAR
Chetan Kapoor CEO AgilePlanet
Trevor Blackwell CEO Anybots

Company Presentations

Dan Whaley CEO Climos
Geoff Brown CEO m2mi
Tom Serres CEO Piryx

I hope you are planning to attend.  If you’d like to get into this event but don’t have a ticket, email me at jlamis@scivestor.com to see what we can do.

No Comments | In: Nanotechnology, Robotics, SciVestor, Semantic Web, Singularity Summit | | #

When I think about the future of the internet and “Web 3.0″, I generally don’t dwell on haptic displays or fully-immersive virtual worlds. Rather I think about the Do Button.  I’ve given a series of talks this year on emerging technologies that will change the world, and one of the main topics covered has been looking at how semantic tools will morph into stronger AI as they become process oriented.

In my world of 2012, the Google home page of the future looks amazingly similar to the home page of today.  The Google search button is relabeled “Do It”, and the logo now sports a techno-color “Agent” appendage.  While the number of pixels changed is relatively small, the implications to a web-engaged society is enormous.

Behind the “Do It” click is a semantic processor that takes the natural language command (e.g. Schedule a date with Kathryn for tomorrow night) and determines the context of the sentence:

• Who is Kathryn?
• What is a “date”?
• When is tomorrow night?
• Is Kathryn available?
• Where is this request to take place?
• What kinds of dates do Jonas and Kathryn like to conduct?
• What needs to be scheduled in order for them to have a date?
• Is a baby sitter available?
• Is a table available?

From there, the process engine goes into action.  Each task is executed through the complex decision-tree of “date scheduling”, ultimately resulting in a text message to my iPhone “Date with Kathryn scheduled, click here for details”.

How the tasks occur may be based on training done to the system on a per user basis, but more likely is based on a collaborative training scheme where you can have your agent execute tasks that were learned by someone elses’ agent in your trusted network.

I’ve pegged the emergence of the Do Button at 2012.  But recent events make me think I have over shot by 3 years.  I’m keeping an eye on a certain Stealth Company that might be scheduling dates for my wife and I within the next 12 months.

4 Comments | In: Artificial Intelligence, Google, Just Plain Cool, Semantic Web, Siri | | #

If there is one thing we have come to expect for society these days, its volatility. The ups and downs of the financial markets mirror the gyrations of corporate strategy that in turn are reflected in the uncertainty of our country, careers, even ourselves.

We’d all like to have a “rock”, a center of calm in the storm that rages around us. But, at least for me, I find myself having a harder and harder time just relaxing and tuning it all out.

It wasn’t always this way. Prior to 1865, the fastest way to get a message across the Atlantic Ocean was by ship. Finding out “what happened to the European markets” was nearly a month long endeavor.

Decision-making was a local sport. Your personal volatility was largely limited to the actions that you and your community could take. A hundred years ago, we simply didn’t have the insight of what was happening beyond our local frame of reference.

This, in turn meant that society was filled with lots of local optima. Across each family / community / business / industry, we created an optimal experience based on what we could control. It was incredibly inefficient from a big picture perspective, but it was also amazingly flexible and redundant. A bank failure in one small town wasn’t likely to affect one across the state. They weren’t connected.

So how did we evolve to our hyper-connected, hyper-volatile society of today?

Society has used the power of accelerating technology to drive an endless drumbeat of linkage-driven efficiency.

Today we have a spaghetti mess of interconnected architectures. Our personal lives are intertwined with our jobs and our companies and the markets and other cultures etc etc. We’ve reached the point where it is too much for our human brains to keep up with it, much less optimize it.

And this leads to massive scale volatility. Everything is designed to be globally optimal. The markets are super efficient and so are the supply chains and so too our individual spending habits. But unfortunately, when something goes wrong in the vast interconnectedness, it can almost bring society to a screeching halt.

So what is the answer?

Architecture and strategic planning. I’m not kidding! We’ve known for years that you can’t make good decisions without understanding what you have and how it is all connected. And as technology within the enterprise has gotten more complex, we have evolved processes and capabilities to track and manage it. The only problem is that the rest of society likes to execute, not plan. To shoot first, ask questions later.

The fall of 2008 presents an amazing inflection point for society. We are going to have to re-architect the financial markets, and are on the track to bring massive change to the political markets as well. I hope the new leaders who stand up to guide these endeavors can take a page out of the Enterprise Architecture playbook: Begin with the end in mind. Create a reference model that explains how things are connected. Document enough of the current state to be able to make sane decisions. Establish standards that make sense and stick to them. And always ask “what if” before you pull the trigger.

1 Comment | In: Enterprise Architecture, Strategic Planning, Uncategorized, Uncertainty | | #

On your next trip to India – you might just want to take a detour to Ambalappuzha.  Ambalappuzha is a small town in the state of Kerala, in southern India. The town is famous for its Sri Krishna temple and its rice pudding.

For the temple of Ambalappuzha is where the legend of Paal Payasam originates.

According to legend, Lord Krishna once appeared in the form of a sage in the court of the king who ruled the region and challenged him for a game of chess. The king being a chess enthusiast himself gladly accepted the invitation. The prize had to be decided before the game and the king asked the sage to choose his prize in case he wins. The sage told the king that he was a man of few material needs, and thus all he wished was a few grains of rice. The amount of rice itself shall be determined using the chessboard in the following manner. One grain of rice shall be placed in the first square, two grains in the second square, four in the third square, eight in the fourth square and so on. Every square will have double the number of grains of its predecessor.

Upon hearing the demand, the king was unhappy since the sage requested only a few grains of rice instead of other riches from the kingdom, which the king would’ve been happy to donate.

Never-the-less, the game commenced, and needless to say the king lost the game. The King called forth to a porter from the royal granary to bring forth a bag of rice to met out the  prize. As he started adding grains of rice to the chessboard, the king soon realized the true nature of the sage’s demands. By the 20th square, the number had reached one-million grains of rice and by the 40th square, it became one-trillion. The royal grainery soon ran out of bags of rice. The king realized that even if he provides all the rice in his kingdom and his adjacent kingdoms, he would never be able to fulfill the promised reward. For the amount of rice required to fill a 64-squared chessboard is 18 billion billion grains of rice - 460 billion tons.

Upon seeing the dilemma, the sage appeared to the king in his true-form, that of lord Krishna. He told the King that he doesn’t have to pay the debt immediately but can pay him over time – and that The king shall serve paal-payasam in the temple freely to the pilgrims every day until the debt is paid off.  And today, you will still find rice pudding in the temples of southern Indian state of Kerala.

No Comments | In: Accelerating Technologies, Business, Just Plain Cool, Singapore | | #